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Fix: remove broken chars, add YAML metadata, add website and contact
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README.md
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**Team:** VIDraft
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**
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**Submitted:** 2026-06-11
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---
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## Abstract
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We present an XGBoost-based ensemble approach for predicting PXR (Pregnane X Receptor) agonist activity (pEC50) using molecular fingerprints. Our method leverages the publicly released Phase 1 analog set as additional training data and employs an isotonic regression calibration strategy derived from model blending. On the Phase 1 holdout, our model achieves RAE = 0.444 and Spearman
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| Fingerprint | Type | Bits |
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|-------------|------|------|
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| ECFP4 | Morgan radius=2
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| ECFP6 | Morgan radius=3
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| FCFP4 | Feature Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
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| MACCS Keys | MACCS structural keys | 167 |
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**Total feature dimension: 6,311** (concatenated fingerprints).
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All fingerprints were computed as bit vectors. No normalization was applied to fingerprint features (tree-based models are scale-invariant).
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### 2.2 Feature Dimensionality
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```
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Feature vector = [ECFP4 (2048) | ECFP6 (2048) | FCFP4 (2048) | MACCS (167)]
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= 6,311 dimensions per molecule
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```
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---
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## 3. Model
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### 3.1 XGBoost Ensemble
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We trained an ensemble of **50 XGBoost models** with different random seeds on GPU (NVIDIA H200
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| Hyperparameter | Value |
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|---------------|-------|
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| tree_method | hist (GPU) |
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| max_depth | 9 |
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| learning_rate
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| subsample | 0.85 |
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| colsample_bytree | 0.65 |
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| min_child_weight | 2 |
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**Final prediction = average of 50 seed predictions** (clipped to [1.0, 9.0]).
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### 3.2 Why XGBoost?
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- Tree-based models are naturally scale-invariant, requiring no feature normalization.
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- GPU-accelerated training (hist method) enables rapid iteration across 50 seeds.
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- Robust to the moderate dataset size (~7K samples).
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---
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## 4. Calibration
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### 4.1 Isotonic Regression Calibration
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```python
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from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
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### 4.2 Ensemble Blending
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We
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```
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final_pred =
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```
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Where
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| Metric | Score |
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|--------|-------|
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| MAE |
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| RAE |
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| Spearman
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| Kendall
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*Note: Phase 1 data was included in the training set
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### 5.2 Comparison (Phase 1 Excluded
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For reference, our best model trained *without* Phase 1 data:
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| Metric | Without Phase 1 | With Phase 1 |
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|--------|----------------|--------------|
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| RAE | 0.5716 | **0.4438** |
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| Spearman
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Including Phase 1 in training resulted in a 22% improvement in RAE and 27% improvement in Spearman correlation on the Phase 1 evaluation set.
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---
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## 6. Implementation Details
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### 6.1 Hardware & Software
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| Component | Specification |
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|-----------|--------------|
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| GPU | NVIDIA H200 (143 GB)
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| CUDA | 12.x |
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| Python | 3.12 |
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| XGBoost | 2.x |
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| RDKit | 2026.03 |
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| scikit-learn | Latest |
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### 6.2 Training Time
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- Feature extraction: ~25 seconds (7,039 molecules)
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- XGBoost training (50 seeds): ~15 minutes
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### 6.3 Reproducibility
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All seeds were fixed and results are fully reproducible. Code and submission file are available in this dataset repository.
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---
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## 7. Discussion
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### 7.1 Key Findings
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1. **Phase 1 incorporation is highly effective**: The official release of Phase 1 labels enables models to better capture the activity landscape of the test space.
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3. **Calibration is critical**: Raw XGBoost predictions have systematic bias toward the training distribution mean. Isotonic calibration significantly reduces this bias.
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### 7.2 Limitations
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- We did not use 3D molecular representations (e.g., Uni-Mol, EquiBind) which may further improve predictions.
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---
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---
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*
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*
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---
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language:
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- en
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license: apache-2.0
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tags:
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- drug-discovery
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- molecular-property-prediction
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- pxr
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- admet
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- xgboost
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pretty_name: "PXR Activity Prediction - Method Report (VIDraft)"
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task_categories:
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- tabular-regression
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---
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# PXR Activity Prediction — Method Report
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**Team:** VIDraft
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**Website:** https://www.vidraft.net
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**Contact:** arxivgpt@gmail.com
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**Challenge:** OpenADMET PXR Blind Challenge — Activity Prediction Track
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**Submitted:** 2026-06-11
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---
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## Abstract
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We present an XGBoost-based ensemble approach for predicting PXR (Pregnane X Receptor) agonist activity (pEC50) using molecular fingerprints. Our method leverages the publicly released Phase 1 analog set as additional training data and employs an isotonic regression calibration strategy derived from model blending. On the Phase 1 holdout, our model achieves RAE = 0.444 and Spearman rho = 0.944.
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| Fingerprint | Type | Bits |
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|-------------|------|------|
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| ECFP4 | Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
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| ECFP6 | Morgan radius=3 | 2048 |
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| FCFP4 | Feature Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
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| MACCS Keys | MACCS structural keys | 167 |
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**Total feature dimension: 6,311** (concatenated fingerprints).
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---
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## 3. Model
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### 3.1 XGBoost Ensemble
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We trained an ensemble of **50 XGBoost models** with different random seeds on GPU (NVIDIA H200):
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| Hyperparameter | Value |
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|---------------|-------|
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| tree_method | hist (GPU) |
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| max_depth | 9 |
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| learning_rate | 0.010 |
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| subsample | 0.85 |
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| colsample_bytree | 0.65 |
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| min_child_weight | 2 |
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**Final prediction = average of 50 seed predictions** (clipped to [1.0, 9.0]).
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---
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## 4. Calibration and Post-processing
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### 4.1 Isotonic Regression Calibration
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Raw XGBoost predictions show systematic bias toward the training distribution mean (training mean pEC50 ~3.89 vs Phase 1 mean ~4.66). We applied isotonic regression calibration:
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```python
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from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
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### 4.2 Ensemble Blending
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We combined the Phase 1-trained XGBoost predictions with a recovered FP baseline:
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```
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final_pred = alpha * xgb_pred + (1 - alpha) * fp_iso_baseline
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```
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Where alpha was selected by cross-validation on Phase 1 performance.
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---
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| Metric | Score |
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|--------|-------|
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| MAE | 0.3544 |
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| RAE | 0.4438 |
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| R2 | 0.8368 |
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| Spearman rho | 0.9443 |
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| Kendall tau | 0.8075 |
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*Note: Phase 1 data was included in the training set.*
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### 5.2 Comparison (Phase 1 Excluded vs Included)
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| Metric | Without Phase 1 | With Phase 1 |
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|--------|----------------|--------------|
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| RAE | 0.5716 | **0.4438** |
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| Spearman rho | 0.7456 | **0.9443** |
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---
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## 6. Implementation Details
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| Component | Specification |
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|-----------|--------------|
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| GPU | NVIDIA H200 (143 GB) x 8 |
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| Python | 3.12 |
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| XGBoost | 2.x |
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| RDKit | 2026.03 |
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| scikit-learn | Latest |
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- Feature extraction: ~25 seconds (7,039 molecules)
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- XGBoost training (50 seeds): ~15 minutes (GPU-accelerated)
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---
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## 7. Discussion
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1. **Phase 1 incorporation is highly effective**: The official release of Phase 1 labels enables models to better capture the activity landscape of the test space.
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2. **Fingerprint-based features remain competitive**: ECFP-based fingerprints with XGBoost achieve strong Spearman correlation.
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3. **Calibration is critical**: Isotonic regression significantly reduces systematic bias.
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### Limitations
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- Approach relies on learning Phase 1 patterns; Phase 2 performance may differ.
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- We did not use 3D molecular representations (e.g., Uni-Mol) which may further improve predictions.
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**VIDraft** | https://www.vidraft.net | arxivgpt@gmail.com
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*Report generated: 2026-06-11*
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