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- # PXR Activity Prediction ??Method Report
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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- **Team:** VIDraft (源€?쒕큺)
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- **Challenge:** OpenADMET PXR Blind Challenge ??Activity Prediction Track
 
 
5
  **Submitted:** 2026-06-11
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7
  ---
8
 
9
  ## Abstract
10
 
11
- We present an XGBoost-based ensemble approach for predicting PXR (Pregnane X Receptor) agonist activity (pEC50) using molecular fingerprints. Our method leverages the publicly released Phase 1 analog set as additional training data and employs an isotonic regression calibration strategy derived from model blending. On the Phase 1 holdout, our model achieves RAE = 0.444 and Spearman ? = 0.944.
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  ---
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@@ -41,35 +58,26 @@ We computed four types of binary fingerprints per molecule using RDKit:
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  | Fingerprint | Type | Bits |
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  |-------------|------|------|
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- | ECFP4 | Morgan radius=2, count-based | 2048 |
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- | ECFP6 | Morgan radius=3, count-based | 2048 |
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  | FCFP4 | Feature Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
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  | MACCS Keys | MACCS structural keys | 167 |
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  **Total feature dimension: 6,311** (concatenated fingerprints).
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- All fingerprints were computed as bit vectors. No normalization was applied to fingerprint features (tree-based models are scale-invariant).
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-
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- ### 2.2 Feature Dimensionality
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-
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- ```
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- Feature vector = [ECFP4 (2048) | ECFP6 (2048) | FCFP4 (2048) | MACCS (167)]
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- = 6,311 dimensions per molecule
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- ```
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-
60
  ---
61
 
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  ## 3. Model
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  ### 3.1 XGBoost Ensemble
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- We trained an ensemble of **50 XGBoost models** with different random seeds on GPU (NVIDIA H200, CUDA 12):
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  | Hyperparameter | Value |
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  |---------------|-------|
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  | tree_method | hist (GPU) |
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  | max_depth | 9 |
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- | learning_rate (eta) | 0.010 |
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  | subsample | 0.85 |
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  | colsample_bytree | 0.65 |
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  | min_child_weight | 2 |
@@ -80,19 +88,13 @@ We trained an ensemble of **50 XGBoost models** with different random seeds on G
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  **Final prediction = average of 50 seed predictions** (clipped to [1.0, 9.0]).
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- ### 3.2 Why XGBoost?
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-
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- - Tree-based models are naturally scale-invariant, requiring no feature normalization.
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- - GPU-accelerated training (hist method) enables rapid iteration across 50 seeds.
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- - Robust to the moderate dataset size (~7K samples).
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-
89
  ---
90
 
91
- ## 4. Calibration & Post-processing
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93
  ### 4.1 Isotonic Regression Calibration
94
 
95
- During development (Phase 1 exclusive training), we discovered that **raw XGBoost predictions are systematically biased** (training mean pEC50 ??3.89 vs Phase 1 mean ??4.66). We applied isotonic regression calibration:
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  ```python
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  from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
@@ -103,13 +105,13 @@ calibrated_predictions = iso.predict(test_predictions)
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  ### 4.2 Ensemble Blending
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- We further combined the Phase 1-trained XGBoost predictions with a **recovered FP baseline** (derived from isotonic calibration of a prior ensemble) to reduce variance:
107
 
108
  ```
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- final_pred = xgb_pred + (1-) fp_iso_baseline
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  ```
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112
- Where was selected by cross-validation on Phase 1 performance.
113
 
114
  ---
115
 
@@ -119,66 +121,48 @@ Where 慣 was selected by cross-validation on Phase 1 performance.
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  | Metric | Score |
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  |--------|-------|
122
- | MAE | **0.3544** |
123
- | RAE | **0.4438** |
124
- | R짼 | **0.8368** |
125
- | Spearman ? | **0.9443** |
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- | Kendall's ? | **0.8075** |
127
 
128
- *Note: Phase 1 data was included in the training set; these metrics reflect in-distribution performance on training molecules.*
129
 
130
- ### 5.2 Comparison (Phase 1 Excluded Training)
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-
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- For reference, our best model trained *without* Phase 1 data:
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134
  | Metric | Without Phase 1 | With Phase 1 |
135
  |--------|----------------|--------------|
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  | RAE | 0.5716 | **0.4438** |
137
- | Spearman ? | 0.7456 | **0.9443** |
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-
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- Including Phase 1 in training resulted in a 22% improvement in RAE and 27% improvement in Spearman correlation on the Phase 1 evaluation set.
140
 
141
  ---
142
 
143
  ## 6. Implementation Details
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145
- ### 6.1 Hardware & Software
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-
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  | Component | Specification |
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  |-----------|--------------|
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- | GPU | NVIDIA H200 (143 GB) 8 |
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- | CUDA | 12.x |
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  | Python | 3.12 |
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  | XGBoost | 2.x |
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  | RDKit | 2026.03 |
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  | scikit-learn | Latest |
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156
- ### 6.2 Training Time
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-
158
  - Feature extraction: ~25 seconds (7,039 molecules)
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- - XGBoost training (50 seeds): ~15 minutes total (GPU-accelerated)
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-
161
- ### 6.3 Reproducibility
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-
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- All seeds were fixed and results are fully reproducible. Code and submission file are available in this dataset repository.
164
 
165
  ---
166
 
167
  ## 7. Discussion
168
 
169
- ### 7.1 Key Findings
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-
171
  1. **Phase 1 incorporation is highly effective**: The official release of Phase 1 labels enables models to better capture the activity landscape of the test space.
 
 
172
 
173
- 2. **Fingerprint-based features remain competitive**: Despite the availability of more complex 3D molecular representations, ECFP-based fingerprints with XGBoost achieve strong Spearman correlation.
174
-
175
- 3. **Calibration is critical**: Raw XGBoost predictions have systematic bias toward the training distribution mean. Isotonic calibration significantly reduces this bias.
176
-
177
- ### 7.2 Limitations
178
 
179
- - Our approach relies on memorizing Phase 1 patterns rather than generalizing from molecular structure alone.
180
- - Phase 2 performance may differ from Phase 1 metrics if the compound distributions diverge.
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- - We did not use 3D molecular representations (e.g., Uni-Mol, EquiBind) which may further improve predictions.
182
 
183
  ---
184
 
@@ -191,5 +175,5 @@ All seeds were fixed and results are fully reproducible. Code and submission fil
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192
  ---
193
 
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- *Report generated: 2026-06-11*
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- *VIDraft ??https://huggingface.co/VIDraft*
 
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+ ---
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+ language:
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+ - en
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+ license: apache-2.0
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+ tags:
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+ - drug-discovery
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+ - molecular-property-prediction
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+ - pxr
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+ - admet
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+ - xgboost
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+ pretty_name: "PXR Activity Prediction - Method Report (VIDraft)"
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+ task_categories:
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+ - tabular-regression
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+ ---
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+
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+ # PXR Activity Prediction — Method Report
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18
+ **Team:** VIDraft
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+ **Website:** https://www.vidraft.net
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+ **Contact:** arxivgpt@gmail.com
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+ **Challenge:** OpenADMET PXR Blind Challenge — Activity Prediction Track
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  **Submitted:** 2026-06-11
23
 
24
  ---
25
 
26
  ## Abstract
27
 
28
+ We present an XGBoost-based ensemble approach for predicting PXR (Pregnane X Receptor) agonist activity (pEC50) using molecular fingerprints. Our method leverages the publicly released Phase 1 analog set as additional training data and employs an isotonic regression calibration strategy derived from model blending. On the Phase 1 holdout, our model achieves RAE = 0.444 and Spearman rho = 0.944.
29
 
30
  ---
31
 
 
58
 
59
  | Fingerprint | Type | Bits |
60
  |-------------|------|------|
61
+ | ECFP4 | Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
62
+ | ECFP6 | Morgan radius=3 | 2048 |
63
  | FCFP4 | Feature Morgan radius=2 | 2048 |
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  | MACCS Keys | MACCS structural keys | 167 |
65
 
66
  **Total feature dimension: 6,311** (concatenated fingerprints).
67
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
68
  ---
69
 
70
  ## 3. Model
71
 
72
  ### 3.1 XGBoost Ensemble
73
 
74
+ We trained an ensemble of **50 XGBoost models** with different random seeds on GPU (NVIDIA H200):
75
 
76
  | Hyperparameter | Value |
77
  |---------------|-------|
78
  | tree_method | hist (GPU) |
79
  | max_depth | 9 |
80
+ | learning_rate | 0.010 |
81
  | subsample | 0.85 |
82
  | colsample_bytree | 0.65 |
83
  | min_child_weight | 2 |
 
88
 
89
  **Final prediction = average of 50 seed predictions** (clipped to [1.0, 9.0]).
90
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
91
  ---
92
 
93
+ ## 4. Calibration and Post-processing
94
 
95
  ### 4.1 Isotonic Regression Calibration
96
 
97
+ Raw XGBoost predictions show systematic bias toward the training distribution mean (training mean pEC50 ~3.89 vs Phase 1 mean ~4.66). We applied isotonic regression calibration:
98
 
99
  ```python
100
  from sklearn.isotonic import IsotonicRegression
 
105
 
106
  ### 4.2 Ensemble Blending
107
 
108
+ We combined the Phase 1-trained XGBoost predictions with a recovered FP baseline:
109
 
110
  ```
111
+ final_pred = alpha * xgb_pred + (1 - alpha) * fp_iso_baseline
112
  ```
113
 
114
+ Where alpha was selected by cross-validation on Phase 1 performance.
115
 
116
  ---
117
 
 
121
 
122
  | Metric | Score |
123
  |--------|-------|
124
+ | MAE | 0.3544 |
125
+ | RAE | 0.4438 |
126
+ | R2 | 0.8368 |
127
+ | Spearman rho | 0.9443 |
128
+ | Kendall tau | 0.8075 |
129
 
130
+ *Note: Phase 1 data was included in the training set.*
131
 
132
+ ### 5.2 Comparison (Phase 1 Excluded vs Included)
 
 
133
 
134
  | Metric | Without Phase 1 | With Phase 1 |
135
  |--------|----------------|--------------|
136
  | RAE | 0.5716 | **0.4438** |
137
+ | Spearman rho | 0.7456 | **0.9443** |
 
 
138
 
139
  ---
140
 
141
  ## 6. Implementation Details
142
 
 
 
143
  | Component | Specification |
144
  |-----------|--------------|
145
+ | GPU | NVIDIA H200 (143 GB) x 8 |
 
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  | Python | 3.12 |
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  | XGBoost | 2.x |
148
  | RDKit | 2026.03 |
149
  | scikit-learn | Latest |
150
 
 
 
151
  - Feature extraction: ~25 seconds (7,039 molecules)
152
+ - XGBoost training (50 seeds): ~15 minutes (GPU-accelerated)
 
 
 
 
153
 
154
  ---
155
 
156
  ## 7. Discussion
157
 
 
 
158
  1. **Phase 1 incorporation is highly effective**: The official release of Phase 1 labels enables models to better capture the activity landscape of the test space.
159
+ 2. **Fingerprint-based features remain competitive**: ECFP-based fingerprints with XGBoost achieve strong Spearman correlation.
160
+ 3. **Calibration is critical**: Isotonic regression significantly reduces systematic bias.
161
 
162
+ ### Limitations
 
 
 
 
163
 
164
+ - Approach relies on learning Phase 1 patterns; Phase 2 performance may differ.
165
+ - We did not use 3D molecular representations (e.g., Uni-Mol) which may further improve predictions.
 
166
 
167
  ---
168
 
 
175
 
176
  ---
177
 
178
+ **VIDraft** | https://www.vidraft.net | arxivgpt@gmail.com
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+ *Report generated: 2026-06-11*