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SubscribeAn ensemble of convolution-based methods for fault detection using vibration signals
This paper focuses on solving a fault detection problem using multivariate time series of vibration signals collected from planetary gearboxes in a test rig. Various traditional machine learning and deep learning methods have been proposed for multivariate time-series classification, including distance-based, functional data-oriented, feature-driven, and convolution kernel-based methods. Recent studies have shown using convolution kernel-based methods like ROCKET, and 1D convolutional neural networks with ResNet and FCN, have robust performance for multivariate time-series data classification. We propose an ensemble of three convolution kernel-based methods and show its efficacy on this fault detection problem by outperforming other approaches and achieving an accuracy of more than 98.8\%.
Comparison of biomedical relationship extraction methods and models for knowledge graph creation
Biomedical research is growing at such an exponential pace that scientists, researchers, and practitioners are no more able to cope with the amount of published literature in the domain. The knowledge presented in the literature needs to be systematized in such a way that claims and hypotheses can be easily found, accessed, and validated. Knowledge graphs can provide such a framework for semantic knowledge representation from literature. However, in order to build a knowledge graph, it is necessary to extract knowledge as relationships between biomedical entities and normalize both entities and relationship types. In this paper, we present and compare few rule-based and machine learning-based (Naive Bayes, Random Forests as examples of traditional machine learning methods and DistilBERT, PubMedBERT, T5 and SciFive-based models as examples of modern deep learning transformers) methods for scalable relationship extraction from biomedical literature, and for the integration into the knowledge graphs. We examine how resilient are these various methods to unbalanced and fairly small datasets. Our experiments show that transformer-based models handle well both small (due to pre-training on a large dataset) and unbalanced datasets. The best performing model was the PubMedBERT-based model fine-tuned on balanced data, with a reported F1-score of 0.92. DistilBERT-based model followed with F1-score of 0.89, performing faster and with lower resource requirements. BERT-based models performed better then T5-based generative models.
Looped Transformers are Better at Learning Learning Algorithms
Transformers have demonstrated effectiveness in in-context solving data-fitting problems from various (latent) models, as reported by Garg et al. However, the absence of an inherent iterative structure in the transformer architecture presents a challenge in emulating the iterative algorithms, which are commonly employed in traditional machine learning methods. To address this, we propose the utilization of looped transformer architecture and its associated training methodology, with the aim of incorporating iterative characteristics into the transformer architectures. Experimental results suggest that the looped transformer achieves performance comparable to the standard transformer in solving various data-fitting problems, while utilizing less than 10\% of the parameter count.
Evaluating Large Language Models for Anxiety and Depression Classification using Counseling and Psychotherapy Transcripts
We aim to evaluate the efficacy of traditional machine learning and large language models (LLMs) in classifying anxiety and depression from long conversational transcripts. We fine-tune both established transformer models (BERT, RoBERTa, Longformer) and more recent large models (Mistral-7B), trained a Support Vector Machine with feature engineering, and assessed GPT models through prompting. We observe that state-of-the-art models fail to enhance classification outcomes compared to traditional machine learning methods.
TabKAN: Advancing Tabular Data Analysis using Kolmogorov-Arnold Network
Tabular data analysis presents unique challenges that arise from heterogeneous feature types, missing values, and complex feature interactions. While traditional machine learning methods like gradient boosting often outperform deep learning, recent advancements in neural architectures offer promising alternatives. In this study, we introduce TabKAN, a novel framework for tabular data modeling based on Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). Unlike conventional deep learning models, KANs use learnable activation functions on edges, which improves both interpretability and training efficiency. TabKAN incorporates modular KAN-based architectures designed for tabular analysis and proposes a transfer learning framework for knowledge transfer across domains. Furthermore, we develop a model-specific interpretability approach that reduces reliance on post hoc explanations. Extensive experiments on public datasets show that TabKAN achieves superior performance in supervised learning and significantly outperforms classical and Transformer-based models in binary and multi-class classification. The results demonstrate the potential of KAN-based architectures to bridge the gap between traditional machine learning and deep learning for structured data.
Federated PCA on Grassmann Manifold for IoT Anomaly Detection
With the proliferation of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the rising interconnectedness of devices, network security faces significant challenges, especially from anomalous activities. While traditional machine learning-based intrusion detection systems (ML-IDS) effectively employ supervised learning methods, they possess limitations such as the requirement for labeled data and challenges with high dimensionality. Recent unsupervised ML-IDS approaches such as AutoEncoders and Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) offer alternative solutions but pose challenges in deployment onto resource-constrained IoT devices and in interpretability. To address these concerns, this paper proposes a novel federated unsupervised anomaly detection framework, FedPCA, that leverages Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Alternating Directions Method Multipliers (ADMM) to learn common representations of distributed non-i.i.d. datasets. Building on the FedPCA framework, we propose two algorithms, FEDPE in Euclidean space and FEDPG on Grassmann manifolds. Our approach enables real-time threat detection and mitigation at the device level, enhancing network resilience while ensuring privacy. Moreover, the proposed algorithms are accompanied by theoretical convergence rates even under a subsampling scheme, a novel result. Experimental results on the UNSW-NB15 and TON-IoT datasets show that our proposed methods offer performance in anomaly detection comparable to nonlinear baselines, while providing significant improvements in communication and memory efficiency, underscoring their potential for securing IoT networks.
multiMentalRoBERTa: A Fine-tuned Multiclass Classifier for Mental Health Disorder
The early detection of mental health disorders from social media text is critical for enabling timely support, risk assessment, and referral to appropriate resources. This work introduces multiMentalRoBERTa, a fine-tuned RoBERTa model designed for multiclass classification of common mental health conditions, including stress, anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suicidal ideation, and neutral discourse. Drawing on multiple curated datasets, data exploration is conducted to analyze class overlaps, revealing strong correlations between depression and suicidal ideation as well as anxiety and PTSD, while stress emerges as a broad, overlapping category. Comparative experiments with traditional machine learning methods, domain-specific transformers, and prompting-based large language models demonstrate that multiMentalRoBERTa achieves superior performance, with macro F1-scores of 0.839 in the six-class setup and 0.870 in the five-class setup (excluding stress), outperforming both fine-tuned MentalBERT and baseline classifiers. Beyond predictive accuracy, explainability methods, including Layer Integrated Gradients and KeyBERT, are applied to identify lexical cues that drive classification, with a particular focus on distinguishing depression from suicidal ideation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of fine-tuned transformers for reliable and interpretable detection in sensitive contexts, while also underscoring the importance of fairness, bias mitigation, and human-in-the-loop safety protocols. Overall, multiMentalRoBERTa is presented as a lightweight, robust, and deployable solution for enhancing support in mental health platforms.
Sentiment Analysis of Lithuanian Online Reviews Using Large Language Models
Sentiment analysis is a widely researched area within Natural Language Processing (NLP), attracting significant interest due to the advent of automated solutions. Despite this, the task remains challenging because of the inherent complexity of languages and the subjective nature of sentiments. It is even more challenging for less-studied and less-resourced languages such as Lithuanian. Our review of existing Lithuanian NLP research reveals that traditional machine learning methods and classification algorithms have limited effectiveness for the task. In this work, we address sentiment analysis of Lithuanian five-star-based online reviews from multiple domains that we collect and clean. We apply transformer models to this task for the first time, exploring the capabilities of pre-trained multilingual Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically focusing on fine-tuning BERT and T5 models. Given the inherent difficulty of the task, the fine-tuned models perform quite well, especially when the sentiments themselves are less ambiguous: 80.74% and 89.61% testing recognition accuracy of the most popular one- and five-star reviews respectively. They significantly outperform current commercial state-of-the-art general-purpose LLM GPT-4. We openly share our fine-tuned LLMs online.
Hierarchical Text Classification Using Black Box Large Language Models
Hierarchical Text Classification (HTC) aims to assign texts to structured label hierarchies; however, it faces challenges due to data scarcity and model complexity. This study explores the feasibility of using black box Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via APIs for HTC, as an alternative to traditional machine learning methods that require extensive labeled data and computational resources. We evaluate three prompting strategies -- Direct Leaf Label Prediction (DL), Direct Hierarchical Label Prediction (DH), and Top-down Multi-step Hierarchical Label Prediction (TMH) -- in both zero-shot and few-shot settings, comparing the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies. Experiments on two datasets show that a few-shot setting consistently improves classification accuracy compared to a zero-shot setting. While a traditional machine learning model achieves high accuracy on a dataset with a shallow hierarchy, LLMs, especially DH strategy, tend to outperform the machine learning model on a dataset with a deeper hierarchy. API costs increase significantly due to the higher input tokens required for deeper label hierarchies on DH strategy. These results emphasize the trade-off between accuracy improvement and the computational cost of prompt strategy. These findings highlight the potential of black box LLMs for HTC while underscoring the need to carefully select a prompt strategy to balance performance and cost.
Towards Interpretable End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prediction: Utilizing Administrative Claims Data with Explainable AI Techniques
This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.
Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Text Classifiers
Retrained large language models (LLMs) have become extensively used across various sub-disciplines of natural language processing (NLP). In NLP, text classification problems have garnered considerable focus, but still faced with some limitations related to expensive computational cost, time consumption, and robust performance to unseen classes. With the proposal of chain of thought prompting (CoT), LLMs can be implemented using zero-shot learning (ZSL) with the step by step reasoning prompts, instead of conventional question and answer formats. The zero-shot LLMs in the text classification problems can alleviate these limitations by directly utilizing pretrained models to predict both seen and unseen classes. Our research primarily validates the capability of GPT models in text classification. We focus on effectively utilizing prompt strategies to various text classification scenarios. Besides, we compare the performance of zero shot LLMs with other state of the art text classification methods, including traditional machine learning methods, deep learning methods, and ZSL methods. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of LLMs underscores their effectiveness as zero-shot text classifiers in three of the four datasets analyzed. The proficiency is especially advantageous for small businesses or teams that may not have extensive knowledge in text classification.
DNA Sequence Classification with Compressors
Recent studies in DNA sequence classification have leveraged sophisticated machine learning techniques, achieving notable accuracy in categorizing complex genomic data. Among these, methods such as k-mer counting have proven effective in distinguishing sequences from varied species like chimpanzees, dogs, and humans, becoming a staple in contemporary genomic research. However, these approaches often demand extensive computational resources, posing a challenge in terms of scalability and efficiency. Addressing this issue, our study introduces a novel adaptation of Jiang et al.'s compressor-based, parameter-free classification method, specifically tailored for DNA sequence analysis. This innovative approach utilizes a variety of compression algorithms, such as Gzip, Brotli, and LZMA, to efficiently process and classify genomic sequences. Not only does this method align with the current state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy, but it also offers a more resource-efficient alternative to traditional machine learning methods. Our comprehensive evaluation demonstrates the proposed method's effectiveness in accurately classifying DNA sequences from multiple species. We present a detailed analysis of the performance of each algorithm used, highlighting the strengths and limitations of our approach in various genomic contexts. Furthermore, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for bioinformatics, particularly in genomic data processing and analysis. The results of our study pave the way for more efficient and scalable DNA sequence classification methods, offering significant potential for advancements in genomic research and applications.
Advances in Set Function Learning: A Survey of Techniques and Applications
Set function learning has emerged as a crucial area in machine learning, addressing the challenge of modeling functions that take sets as inputs. Unlike traditional machine learning that involves fixed-size input vectors where the order of features matters, set function learning demands methods that are invariant to permutations of the input set, presenting a unique and complex problem. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current development in set function learning, covering foundational theories, key methodologies, and diverse applications. We categorize and discuss existing approaches, focusing on deep learning approaches, such as DeepSets and Set Transformer based methods, as well as other notable alternative methods beyond deep learning, offering a complete view of current models. We also introduce various applications and relevant datasets, such as point cloud processing and multi-label classification, highlighting the significant progress achieved by set function learning methods in these domains. Finally, we conclude by summarizing the current state of set function learning approaches and identifying promising future research directions, aiming to guide and inspire further advancements in this promising field.
Neural Simulated Annealing
Simulated annealing (SA) is a stochastic global optimisation technique applicable to a wide range of discrete and continuous variable problems. Despite its simplicity, the development of an effective SA optimiser for a given problem hinges on a handful of carefully handpicked components; namely, neighbour proposal distribution and temperature annealing schedule. In this work, we view SA from a reinforcement learning perspective and frame the proposal distribution as a policy, which can be optimised for higher solution quality given a fixed computational budget. We demonstrate that this Neural SA with such a learnt proposal distribution, parametrised by small equivariant neural networks, outperforms SA baselines on a number of problems: Rosenbrock's function, the Knapsack problem, the Bin Packing problem, and the Travelling Salesperson problem. We also show that Neural SA scales well to large problems - generalising to significantly larger problems than the ones seen during training - while achieving comparable performance to popular off-the-shelf solvers and other machine learning methods in terms of solution quality and wall-clock time.
CFDBench: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Machine Learning Methods in Fluid Dynamics
In recent years, applying deep learning to solve physics problems has attracted much attention. Data-driven deep learning methods produce fast numerical operators that can learn approximate solutions to the whole system of partial differential equations (i.e., surrogate modeling). Although these neural networks may have lower accuracy than traditional numerical methods, they, once trained, are orders of magnitude faster at inference. Hence, one crucial feature is that these operators can generalize to unseen PDE parameters without expensive re-training.In this paper, we construct CFDBench, a benchmark tailored for evaluating the generalization ability of neural operators after training in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) problems. It features four classic CFD problems: lid-driven cavity flow, laminar boundary layer flow in circular tubes, dam flows through the steps, and periodic Karman vortex street. The data contains a total of 302K frames of velocity and pressure fields, involving 739 cases with different operating condition parameters, generated with numerical methods. We evaluate the effectiveness of popular neural operators including feed-forward networks, DeepONet, FNO, U-Net, etc. on CFDBnech by predicting flows with non-periodic boundary conditions, fluid properties, and flow domain shapes that are not seen during training. Appropriate modifications were made to apply popular deep neural networks to CFDBench and enable the accommodation of more changing inputs. Empirical results on CFDBench show many baseline models have errors as high as 300% in some problems, and severe error accumulation when performing autoregressive inference. CFDBench facilitates a more comprehensive comparison between different neural operators for CFD compared to existing benchmarks.
Gendec: A Machine Learning-based Framework for Gender Detection from Japanese Names
Every human has their own name, a fundamental aspect of their identity and cultural heritage. The name often conveys a wealth of information, including details about an individual's background, ethnicity, and, especially, their gender. By detecting gender through the analysis of names, researchers can unlock valuable insights into linguistic patterns and cultural norms, which can be applied to practical applications. Hence, this work presents a novel dataset for Japanese name gender detection comprising 64,139 full names in romaji, hiragana, and kanji forms, along with their biological genders. Moreover, we propose Gendec, a framework for gender detection from Japanese names that leverages diverse approaches, including traditional machine learning techniques or cutting-edge transfer learning models, to predict the gender associated with Japanese names accurately. Through a thorough investigation, the proposed framework is expected to be effective and serve potential applications in various domains.
Quantum-Inspired Machine Learning for Molecular Docking
Molecular docking is an important tool for structure-based drug design, accelerating the efficiency of drug development. Complex and dynamic binding processes between proteins and small molecules require searching and sampling over a wide spatial range. Traditional docking by searching for possible binding sites and conformations is computationally complex and results poorly under blind docking. Quantum-inspired algorithms combining quantum properties and annealing show great advantages in solving combinatorial optimization problems. Inspired by this, we achieve an improved in blind docking by using quantum-inspired combined with gradients learned by deep learning in the encoded molecular space. Numerical simulation shows that our method outperforms traditional docking algorithms and deep learning-based algorithms over 10\%. Compared to the current state-of-the-art deep learning-based docking algorithm DiffDock, the success rate of Top-1 (RMSD<2) achieves an improvement from 33\% to 35\% in our same setup. In particular, a 6\% improvement is realized in the high-precision region(RMSD<1) on molecules data unseen in DiffDock, which demonstrates the well-generalized of our method.
Fine-tuning Large Language Models for Multigenerator, Multidomain, and Multilingual Machine-Generated Text Detection
SemEval-2024 Task 8 introduces the challenge of identifying machine-generated texts from diverse Large Language Models (LLMs) in various languages and domains. The task comprises three subtasks: binary classification in monolingual and multilingual (Subtask A), multi-class classification (Subtask B), and mixed text detection (Subtask C). This paper focuses on Subtask A & B. Each subtask is supported by three datasets for training, development, and testing. To tackle this task, two methods: 1) using traditional machine learning (ML) with natural language preprocessing (NLP) for feature extraction, and 2) fine-tuning LLMs for text classification. The results show that transformer models, particularly LoRA-RoBERTa, exceed traditional ML methods in effectiveness, with majority voting being particularly effective in multilingual contexts for identifying machine-generated texts.
Decentralised Traffic Incident Detection via Network Lasso
Traffic incident detection plays a key role in intelligent transportation systems, which has gained great attention in transport engineering. In the past, traditional machine learning (ML) based detection methods achieved good performance under a centralised computing paradigm, where all data are transmitted to a central server for building ML models therein. Nowadays, deep neural networks based federated learning (FL) has become a mainstream detection approach to enable the model training in a decentralised manner while warranting local data governance. Such neural networks-centred techniques, however, have overshadowed the utility of well-established ML-based detection methods. In this work, we aim to explore the potential of potent conventional ML-based detection models in modern traffic scenarios featured by distributed data. We leverage an elegant but less explored distributed optimisation framework named Network Lasso, with guaranteed global convergence for convex problem formulations, integrate the potent convex ML model with it, and compare it with centralised learning, local learning, and federated learning methods atop a well-known traffic incident detection dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed network lasso-based approach provides a promising alternative to the FL-based approach in data-decentralised traffic scenarios, with a strong convergence guarantee while rekindling the significance of conventional ML-based detection methods.
Cueless EEG imagined speech for subject identification: dataset and benchmarks
Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals have emerged as a promising modality for biometric identification. While previous studies have explored the use of imagined speech with semantically meaningful words for subject identification, most have relied on additional visual or auditory cues. In this study, we introduce a cueless EEG-based imagined speech paradigm, where subjects imagine the pronunciation of semantically meaningful words without any external cues. This innovative approach addresses the limitations of prior methods by requiring subjects to select and imagine words from a predefined list naturally. The dataset comprises over 4,350 trials from 11 subjects across five sessions. We assess a variety of classification methods, including traditional machine learning techniques such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and XGBoost, as well as time-series foundation models and deep learning architectures specifically designed for EEG classification, such as EEG Conformer and Shallow ConvNet. A session-based hold-out validation strategy was employed to ensure reliable evaluation and prevent data leakage. Our results demonstrate outstanding classification accuracy, reaching 97.93%. These findings highlight the potential of cueless EEG paradigms for secure and reliable subject identification in real-world applications, such as brain-computer interfaces (BCIs).
Multimodal Clinical Pseudo-notes for Emergency Department Prediction Tasks using Multiple Embedding Model for EHR (MEME)
In this work, we introduce Multiple Embedding Model for EHR (MEME), an approach that views Electronic Health Records (EHR) as multimodal data. This approach incorporates "pseudo-notes", textual representations of tabular EHR concepts such as diagnoses and medications, and allows us to effectively employ Large Language Models (LLMs) for EHR representation. This framework also adopts a multimodal approach, embedding each EHR modality separately. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MEME by applying it to several tasks within the Emergency Department across multiple hospital systems. Our findings show that MEME surpasses the performance of both single modality embedding methods and traditional machine learning approaches. However, we also observe notable limitations in generalizability across hospital institutions for all tested models.
Multi-granular Legal Topic Classification on Greek Legislation
In this work, we study the task of classifying legal texts written in the Greek language. We introduce and make publicly available a novel dataset based on Greek legislation, consisting of more than 47 thousand official, categorized Greek legislation resources. We experiment with this dataset and evaluate a battery of advanced methods and classifiers, ranging from traditional machine learning and RNN-based methods to state-of-the-art Transformer-based methods. We show that recurrent architectures with domain-specific word embeddings offer improved overall performance while being competitive even to transformer-based models. Finally, we show that cutting-edge multilingual and monolingual transformer-based models brawl on the top of the classifiers' ranking, making us question the necessity of training monolingual transfer learning models as a rule of thumb. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time the task of Greek legal text classification is considered in an open research project, while also Greek is a language with very limited NLP resources in general.
Robust Detection of LLM-Generated Text: A Comparative Analysis
The ability of large language models to generate complex texts allows them to be widely integrated into many aspects of life, and their output can quickly fill all network resources. As the impact of LLMs grows, it becomes increasingly important to develop powerful detectors for the generated text. This detector is essential to prevent the potential misuse of these technologies and to protect areas such as social media from the negative effects of false content generated by LLMS. The main goal of LLM-generated text detection is to determine whether text is generated by an LLM, which is a basic binary classification task. In our work, we mainly use three different classification methods based on open source datasets: traditional machine learning techniques such as logistic regression, k-means clustering, Gaussian Naive Bayes, support vector machines, and methods based on converters such as BERT, and finally algorithms that use LLMs to detect LLM-generated text. We focus on model generalization, potential adversarial attacks, and accuracy of model evaluation. Finally, the possible research direction in the future is proposed, and the current experimental results are summarized.
Dynamic graph neural networks for enhanced volatility prediction in financial markets
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors.
A Deep Look into Neural Ranking Models for Information Retrieval
Ranking models lie at the heart of research on information retrieval (IR). During the past decades, different techniques have been proposed for constructing ranking models, from traditional heuristic methods, probabilistic methods, to modern machine learning methods. Recently, with the advance of deep learning technology, we have witnessed a growing body of work in applying shallow or deep neural networks to the ranking problem in IR, referred to as neural ranking models in this paper. The power of neural ranking models lies in the ability to learn from the raw text inputs for the ranking problem to avoid many limitations of hand-crafted features. Neural networks have sufficient capacity to model complicated tasks, which is needed to handle the complexity of relevance estimation in ranking. Since there have been a large variety of neural ranking models proposed, we believe it is the right time to summarize the current status, learn from existing methodologies, and gain some insights for future development. In contrast to existing reviews, in this survey, we will take a deep look into the neural ranking models from different dimensions to analyze their underlying assumptions, major design principles, and learning strategies. We compare these models through benchmark tasks to obtain a comprehensive empirical understanding of the existing techniques. We will also discuss what is missing in the current literature and what are the promising and desired future directions.
Von Mises Mixture Distributions for Molecular Conformation Generation
Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.
AI-Driven Virtual Teacher for Enhanced Educational Efficiency: Leveraging Large Pretrain Models for Autonomous Error Analysis and Correction
Students frequently make mistakes while solving mathematical problems, and traditional error correction methods are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces an innovative Virtual AI Teacher system designed to autonomously analyze and correct student Errors (VATE). Leveraging advanced large language models (LLMs), the system uses student drafts as a primary source for error analysis, which enhances understanding of the student's learning process. It incorporates sophisticated prompt engineering and maintains an error pool to reduce computational overhead. The AI-driven system also features a real-time dialogue component for efficient student interaction. Our approach demonstrates significant advantages over traditional and machine learning-based error correction methods, including reduced educational costs, high scalability, and superior generalizability. The system has been deployed on the Squirrel AI learning platform for elementary mathematics education, where it achieves 78.3\% accuracy in error analysis and shows a marked improvement in student learning efficiency. Satisfaction surveys indicate a strong positive reception, highlighting the system's potential to transform educational practices.
SELA: Tree-Search Enhanced LLM Agents for Automated Machine Learning
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches encompass traditional methods that optimize fixed pipelines for model selection and ensembling, as well as newer LLM-based frameworks that autonomously build pipelines. While LLM-based agents have shown promise in automating machine learning tasks, they often generate low-diversity and suboptimal code, even after multiple iterations. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Tree-Search Enhanced LLM Agents (SELA), an innovative agent-based system that leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to optimize the AutoML process. By representing pipeline configurations as trees, our framework enables agents to conduct experiments intelligently and iteratively refine their strategies, facilitating a more effective exploration of the machine learning solution space. This novel approach allows SELA to discover optimal pathways based on experimental feedback, improving the overall quality of the solutions. In an extensive evaluation across 20 machine learning datasets, we compare the performance of traditional and agent-based AutoML methods, demonstrating that SELA achieves a win rate of 65% to 80% against each baseline across all datasets. These results underscore the significant potential of agent-based strategies in AutoML, offering a fresh perspective on tackling complex machine learning challenges.
ADAHESSIAN: An Adaptive Second Order Optimizer for Machine Learning
We introduce ADAHESSIAN, a second order stochastic optimization algorithm which dynamically incorporates the curvature of the loss function via ADAptive estimates of the HESSIAN. Second order algorithms are among the most powerful optimization algorithms with superior convergence properties as compared to first order methods such as SGD and Adam. The main disadvantage of traditional second order methods is their heavier per iteration computation and poor accuracy as compared to first order methods. To address these, we incorporate several novel approaches in ADAHESSIAN, including: (i) a fast Hutchinson based method to approximate the curvature matrix with low computational overhead; (ii) a root-mean-square exponential moving average to smooth out variations of the Hessian diagonal across different iterations; and (iii) a block diagonal averaging to reduce the variance of Hessian diagonal elements. We show that ADAHESSIAN achieves new state-of-the-art results by a large margin as compared to other adaptive optimization methods, including variants of Adam. In particular, we perform extensive tests on CV, NLP, and recommendation system tasks and find that ADAHESSIAN: (i) achieves 1.80%/1.45% higher accuracy on ResNets20/32 on Cifar10, and 5.55% higher accuracy on ImageNet as compared to Adam; (ii) outperforms AdamW for transformers by 0.13/0.33 BLEU score on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 2.7/1.0 PPL on PTB/Wikitext-103; (iii) outperforms AdamW for SqueezeBert by 0.41 points on GLUE; and (iv) achieves 0.032% better score than Adagrad for DLRM on the Criteo Ad Kaggle dataset. Importantly, we show that the cost per iteration of ADAHESSIAN is comparable to first order methods, and that it exhibits robustness towards its hyperparameters.
A Machine Learning Pipeline for Hunting Hidden Axion Signals in Pulsar Dispersion Measurements
In the axion model, electromagnetic waves interacting with axions induce frequency-dependent time delays, determined by the axion mass and decay constant. These small delays are difficult to detect, making traditional methods ineffective. To address this, we computed time delays for various parameters and found a prominent dispersion signal when the wave frequency equals half the axion mass. Based on this, we developed a machine learning-based pipeline, achieving 95\% classification accuracy and demonstrating strong detection capability in low signal-to-noise data. Applying this to PSR J1933-6211, we found no axion-induced delays within current sensitivity limits. While existing constraints are limited by atomic clock resolution in radio telescopes, future advances in optical clocks and broader bandwidths will enable more extensive searches. In particular, combining high-precision optical clocks with next-generation radio telescopes, such as the Qitai Radio Telescope, could improve decay constant constraints by four orders of magnitude for axion masses in the 10^{-6} sim 10^{-4} eV range.
Accurate Machine Learning Atmospheric Retrieval via a Neural Network Surrogate Model for Radiative Transfer
Atmospheric retrieval determines the properties of an atmosphere based on its measured spectrum. The low signal-to-noise ratio of exoplanet observations require a Bayesian approach to determine posterior probability distributions of each model parameter, given observed spectra. This inference is computationally expensive, as it requires many executions of a costly radiative transfer (RT) simulation for each set of sampled model parameters. Machine learning (ML) has recently been shown to provide a significant reduction in runtime for retrievals, mainly by training inverse ML models that predict parameter distributions, given observed spectra, albeit with reduced posterior accuracy. Here we present a novel approach to retrieval by training a forward ML surrogate model that predicts spectra given model parameters, providing a fast approximate RT simulation that can be used in a conventional Bayesian retrieval framework without significant loss of accuracy. We demonstrate our method on the emission spectrum of HD 189733 b and find good agreement with a traditional retrieval from the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code (Bhattacharyya coefficients of 0.9843--0.9972, with a mean of 0.9925, between 1D marginalized posteriors). This accuracy comes while still offering significant speed enhancements over traditional RT, albeit not as much as ML methods with lower posterior accuracy. Our method is ~9x faster per parallel chain than BART when run on an AMD EPYC 7402P central processing unit (CPU). Neural-network computation using an NVIDIA Titan Xp graphics processing unit is 90--180x faster per chain than BART on that CPU.
Trusted Machine Learning Models Unlock Private Inference for Problems Currently Infeasible with Cryptography
We often interact with untrusted parties. Prioritization of privacy can limit the effectiveness of these interactions, as achieving certain goals necessitates sharing private data. Traditionally, addressing this challenge has involved either seeking trusted intermediaries or constructing cryptographic protocols that restrict how much data is revealed, such as multi-party computations or zero-knowledge proofs. While significant advances have been made in scaling cryptographic approaches, they remain limited in terms of the size and complexity of applications they can be used for. In this paper, we argue that capable machine learning models can fulfill the role of a trusted third party, thus enabling secure computations for applications that were previously infeasible. In particular, we describe Trusted Capable Model Environments (TCMEs) as an alternative approach for scaling secure computation, where capable machine learning model(s) interact under input/output constraints, with explicit information flow control and explicit statelessness. This approach aims to achieve a balance between privacy and computational efficiency, enabling private inference where classical cryptographic solutions are currently infeasible. We describe a number of use cases that are enabled by TCME, and show that even some simple classic cryptographic problems can already be solved with TCME. Finally, we outline current limitations and discuss the path forward in implementing them.
Double Machine Learning meets Panel Data -- Promises, Pitfalls, and Potential Solutions
Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.
Machine Learning and Deep Learning -- A review for Ecologists
1. The popularity of Machine learning (ML), Deep learning (DL), and Artificial intelligence (AI) has risen sharply in recent years. Despite this spike in popularity, the inner workings of ML and DL algorithms are often perceived as opaque, and their relationship to classical data analysis tools remains debated. 2. Although it is often assumed that ML and DL excel primarily at making predictions, ML and DL can also be used for analytical tasks traditionally addressed with statistical models. Moreover, most recent discussions and reviews on ML focus mainly on DL, missing out on synthesizing the wealth of ML algorithms with different advantages and general principles. 3. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the field of ML and DL, starting by summarizing its historical developments, existing algorithm families, differences to traditional statistical tools, and universal ML principles. We then discuss why and when ML and DL models excel at prediction tasks and where they could offer alternatives to traditional statistical methods for inference, highlighting current and emerging applications for ecological problems. Finally, we summarize emerging trends such as scientific and causal ML, explainable AI, and responsible AI that may significantly impact ecological data analysis in the future. 4. We conclude that ML and DL are powerful new tools for predictive modeling and data analysis. The superior performance of ML and DL algorithms compared to statistical models can be explained by their higher flexibility and automatic data-dependent complexity optimization. However, their use for causal inference is still disputed as the focus of ML and DL methods on predictions creates challenges for the interpretation of these models. Nevertheless, we expect ML and DL to become an indispensable tool in E&E, comparable to other traditional statistical tools.
Machine Learning Workflow to Explain Black-box Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease Classification Evaluated for Multiple Datasets
Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.
An Integrated Optimization and Machine Learning Models to Predict the Admission Status of Emergency Patients
This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.
Machine learning thermal circuit network model for thermal design optimization of electronic circuit board layout with transient heating chips
This paper describes a method combining Bayesian optimization (BO) and a lamped-capacitance thermal circuit network model that is effective for speeding up the thermal design optimization of an electronic circuit board layout with transient heating chips. As electronic devices have become smaller and more complex, the importance of thermal design optimization to ensure heat dissipation performance has increased. However, such thermal design optimization is difficult because it is necessary to consider various trade-offs associated with packaging and transient temperature changes of heat-generating components. This study aims to improve the performance of thermal design optimization by artificial intelligence. BO using a Gaussian process was combined with the lamped-capacitance thermal circuit network model, and its performance was verified by case studies. As a result, BO successfully found the ideal circuit board layout as well as particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) could. The CPU time for BO was 1/5 and 1/4 of that for PSO and GA, respectively. In addition, BO found a non-intuitive optimal solution in approximately 7 minutes from 10 million layout patterns. It was estimated that this was 1/1000 of the CPU time required for analyzing all layout patterns.
Advancing Exchange Rate Forecasting: Leveraging Machine Learning and AI for Enhanced Accuracy in Global Financial Markets
The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.
DendroMap: Visual Exploration of Large-Scale Image Datasets for Machine Learning with Treemaps
In this paper, we present DendroMap, a novel approach to interactively exploring large-scale image datasets for machine learning (ML). ML practitioners often explore image datasets by generating a grid of images or projecting high-dimensional representations of images into 2-D using dimensionality reduction techniques (e.g., t-SNE). However, neither approach effectively scales to large datasets because images are ineffectively organized and interactions are insufficiently supported. To address these challenges, we develop DendroMap by adapting Treemaps, a well-known visualization technique. DendroMap effectively organizes images by extracting hierarchical cluster structures from high-dimensional representations of images. It enables users to make sense of the overall distributions of datasets and interactively zoom into specific areas of interests at multiple levels of abstraction. Our case studies with widely-used image datasets for deep learning demonstrate that users can discover insights about datasets and trained models by examining the diversity of images, identifying underperforming subgroups, and analyzing classification errors. We conducted a user study that evaluates the effectiveness of DendroMap in grouping and searching tasks by comparing it with a gridified version of t-SNE and found that participants preferred DendroMap. DendroMap is available at https://div-lab.github.io/dendromap/.
Annif at SemEval-2025 Task 5: Traditional XMTC augmented by LLMs
This paper presents the Annif system in SemEval-2025 Task 5 (LLMs4Subjects), which focussed on subject indexing using large language models (LLMs). The task required creating subject predictions for bibliographic records from the bilingual TIBKAT database using the GND subject vocabulary. Our approach combines traditional natural language processing and machine learning techniques implemented in the Annif toolkit with innovative LLM-based methods for translation and synthetic data generation, and merging predictions from monolingual models. The system ranked first in the all-subjects category and second in the tib-core-subjects category in the quantitative evaluation, and fourth in qualitative evaluations. These findings demonstrate the potential of combining traditional XMTC algorithms with modern LLM techniques to improve the accuracy and efficiency of subject indexing in multilingual contexts.
A Deep Learning Approach to Radar-based QPE
In this study, we propose a volume-to-point framework for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on the Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Segregation Using Multiple Sensor (QPESUMS) Mosaic Radar data set. With a data volume consisting of the time series of gridded radar reflectivities over the Taiwan area, we used machine learning algorithms to establish a statistical model for QPE in weather stations. The model extracts spatial and temporal features from the input data volume and then associates these features with the location-specific precipitations. In contrast to QPE methods based on the Z-R relation, we leverage the machine learning algorithms to automatically detect the evolution and movement of weather systems and associate these patterns to a location with specific topographic attributes. Specifically, we evaluated this framework with the hourly precipitation data of 45 weather stations in Taipei during 2013-2016. In comparison to the operational QPE scheme used by the Central Weather Bureau, the volume-to-point framework performed comparably well in general cases and excelled in detecting heavy-rainfall events. By using the current results as the reference benchmark, the proposed method can integrate the heterogeneous data sources and potentially improve the forecast in extreme precipitation scenarios.
A Benchmark for Learning to Translate a New Language from One Grammar Book
Large language models (LLMs) can perform impressive feats with in-context learning or lightweight finetuning. It is natural to wonder how well these models adapt to genuinely new tasks, but how does one find tasks that are unseen in internet-scale training sets? We turn to a field that is explicitly motivated and bottlenecked by a scarcity of web data: low-resource languages. In this paper, we introduce MTOB (Machine Translation from One Book), a benchmark for learning to translate between English and Kalamang -- a language with less than 200 speakers and therefore virtually no presence on the web -- using several hundred pages of field linguistics reference materials. This task framing is novel in that it asks a model to learn a language from a single human-readable book of grammar explanations, rather than a large mined corpus of in-domain data, more akin to L2 learning than L1 acquisition. We demonstrate that baselines using current LLMs are promising but fall short of human performance, achieving 44.7 chrF on Kalamang to English translation and 45.8 chrF on English to Kalamang translation, compared to 51.6 and 57.0 chrF by a human who learned Kalamang from the same reference materials. We hope that MTOB will help measure LLM capabilities along a new dimension, and that the methods developed to solve it could help expand access to language technology for underserved communities by leveraging qualitatively different kinds of data than traditional machine translation.
Multi-column Deep Neural Networks for Image Classification
Traditional methods of computer vision and machine learning cannot match human performance on tasks such as the recognition of handwritten digits or traffic signs. Our biologically plausible deep artificial neural network architectures can. Small (often minimal) receptive fields of convolutional winner-take-all neurons yield large network depth, resulting in roughly as many sparsely connected neural layers as found in mammals between retina and visual cortex. Only winner neurons are trained. Several deep neural columns become experts on inputs preprocessed in different ways; their predictions are averaged. Graphics cards allow for fast training. On the very competitive MNIST handwriting benchmark, our method is the first to achieve near-human performance. On a traffic sign recognition benchmark it outperforms humans by a factor of two. We also improve the state-of-the-art on a plethora of common image classification benchmarks.
Harnessing Earnings Reports for Stock Predictions: A QLoRA-Enhanced LLM Approach
Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.
Fusion of ML with numerical simulation for optimized propeller design
In computer-aided engineering design, the goal of a designer is to find an optimal design on a given requirement using the numerical simulator in loop with an optimization method. In this design optimization process, a good design optimization process is one that can reduce the time from inception to design. In this work, we take a class of design problem, that is computationally cheap to evaluate but has high dimensional design space. In such cases, traditional surrogate-based optimization does not offer any benefits. In this work, we propose an alternative way to use ML model to surrogate the design process that formulates the search problem as an inverse problem and can save time by finding the optimal design or at least a good initial seed design for optimization. By using this trained surrogate model with the traditional optimization method, we can get the best of both worlds. We call this as Surrogate Assisted Optimization (SAO)- a hybrid approach by mixing ML surrogate with the traditional optimization method. Empirical evaluations of propeller design problems show that a better efficient design can be found in fewer evaluations using SAO.
UniDM: A Unified Framework for Data Manipulation with Large Language Models
Designing effective data manipulation methods is a long standing problem in data lakes. Traditional methods, which rely on rules or machine learning models, require extensive human efforts on training data collection and tuning models. Recent methods apply Large Language Models (LLMs) to resolve multiple data manipulation tasks. They exhibit bright benefits in terms of performance but still require customized designs to fit each specific task. This is very costly and can not catch up with the requirements of big data lake platforms. In this paper, inspired by the cross-task generality of LLMs on NLP tasks, we pave the first step to design an automatic and general solution to tackle with data manipulation tasks. We propose UniDM, a unified framework which establishes a new paradigm to process data manipulation tasks using LLMs. UniDM formalizes a number of data manipulation tasks in a unified form and abstracts three main general steps to solve each task. We develop an automatic context retrieval to allow the LLMs to retrieve data from data lakes, potentially containing evidence and factual information. For each step, we design effective prompts to guide LLMs to produce high quality results. By our comprehensive evaluation on a variety of benchmarks, our UniDM exhibits great generality and state-of-the-art performance on a wide variety of data manipulation tasks.
Molecule3D: A Benchmark for Predicting 3D Geometries from Molecular Graphs
Graph neural networks are emerging as promising methods for modeling molecular graphs, in which nodes and edges correspond to atoms and chemical bonds, respectively. Recent studies show that when 3D molecular geometries, such as bond lengths and angles, are available, molecular property prediction tasks can be made more accurate. However, computing of 3D molecular geometries requires quantum calculations that are computationally prohibitive. For example, accurate calculation of 3D geometries of a small molecule requires hours of computing time using density functional theory (DFT). Here, we propose to predict the ground-state 3D geometries from molecular graphs using machine learning methods. To make this feasible, we develop a benchmark, known as Molecule3D, that includes a dataset with precise ground-state geometries of approximately 4 million molecules derived from DFT. We also provide a set of software tools for data processing, splitting, training, and evaluation, etc. Specifically, we propose to assess the error and validity of predicted geometries using four metrics. We implement two baseline methods that either predict the pairwise distance between atoms or atom coordinates in 3D space. Experimental results show that, compared with generating 3D geometries with RDKit, our method can achieve comparable prediction accuracy but with much smaller computational costs. Our Molecule3D is available as a module of the MoleculeX software library (https://github.com/divelab/MoleculeX).
NeuralOM: Neural Ocean Model for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Simulation
Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation is critically important for marine research, yet remains challenging due to its substantial thermal inertia and extended time delay. Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated significant advancements in simulation accuracy and computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical methods. Nevertheless, a significant limitation of current ML models for S2S ocean simulation is their inadequate incorporation of physical consistency and the slow-changing properties of the ocean system. In this work, we propose a neural ocean model (NeuralOM) for S2S ocean simulation with a multi-scale interactive graph neural network to emulate diverse physical phenomena associated with ocean systems effectively. Specifically, we propose a multi-stage framework tailored to model the ocean's slowly changing nature. Additionally, we introduce a multi-scale interactive messaging module to capture complex dynamical behaviors, such as gradient changes and multiplicative coupling relationships inherent in ocean dynamics. Extensive experimental evaluations confirm that our proposed NeuralOM outperforms state-of-the-art models in S2S and extreme event simulation. The codes are available at https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.
Towards Methane Detection Onboard Satellites
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and a major driver of climate change, making its timely detection critical for effective mitigation. Machine learning (ML) deployed onboard satellites can enable rapid detection while reducing downlink costs, supporting faster response systems. Conventional methane detection methods often rely on image processing techniques, such as orthorectification to correct geometric distortions and matched filters to enhance plume signals. We introduce a novel approach that bypasses these preprocessing steps by using unorthorectified data (UnorthoDOS). We find that ML models trained on this dataset achieve performance comparable to those trained on orthorectified data. Moreover, we also train models on an orthorectified dataset, showing that they can outperform the matched filter baseline (mag1c). We release model checkpoints and two ML-ready datasets comprising orthorectified and unorthorectified hyperspectral images from the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) sensor at https://huggingface.co/datasets/SpaceML/UnorthoDOS , along with code at https://github.com/spaceml-org/plume-hunter.
Hall effect thruster design via deep neural network for additive manufacturing
Hall effect thrusters are one of the most versatile and popular electric propulsion systems for space use. Industry trends towards interplanetary missions arise advances in design development of such propulsion systems. It is understood that correct sizing of discharge channel in Hall effect thruster impact performance greatly. Since the complete physics model of such propulsion system is not yet optimized for fast computations and design iterations, most thrusters are being designed using so-called scaling laws. But this work focuses on rather novel approach, which is outlined less frequently than ordinary scaling design approach in literature. Using deep machine learning it is possible to create predictive performance model, which can be used to effortlessly get design of required hall thruster with required characteristics using way less computational power than design from scratch and way more flexible than usual scaling approach.
Dive into Time-Series Anomaly Detection: A Decade Review
Recent advances in data collection technology, accompanied by the ever-rising volume and velocity of streaming data, underscore the vital need for time series analytics. In this regard, time-series anomaly detection has been an important activity, entailing various applications in fields such as cyber security, financial markets, law enforcement, and health care. While traditional literature on anomaly detection is centered on statistical measures, the increasing number of machine learning algorithms in recent years call for a structured, general characterization of the research methods for time-series anomaly detection. This survey groups and summarizes anomaly detection existing solutions under a process-centric taxonomy in the time series context. In addition to giving an original categorization of anomaly detection methods, we also perform a meta-analysis of the literature and outline general trends in time-series anomaly detection research.
LatticeWorld: A Multimodal Large Language Model-Empowered Framework for Interactive Complex World Generation
Recent research has been increasingly focusing on developing 3D world models that simulate complex real-world scenarios. World models have found broad applications across various domains, including embodied AI, autonomous driving, entertainment, etc. A more realistic simulation with accurate physics will effectively narrow the sim-to-real gap and allow us to gather rich information about the real world conveniently. While traditional manual modeling has enabled the creation of virtual 3D scenes, modern approaches have leveraged advanced machine learning algorithms for 3D world generation, with most recent advances focusing on generative methods that can create virtual worlds based on user instructions. This work explores such a research direction by proposing LatticeWorld, a simple yet effective 3D world generation framework that streamlines the industrial production pipeline of 3D environments. LatticeWorld leverages lightweight LLMs (LLaMA-2-7B) alongside the industry-grade rendering engine (e.g., Unreal Engine 5) to generate a dynamic environment. Our proposed framework accepts textual descriptions and visual instructions as multimodal inputs and creates large-scale 3D interactive worlds with dynamic agents, featuring competitive multi-agent interaction, high-fidelity physics simulation, and real-time rendering. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate LatticeWorld, showing that it achieves superior accuracy in scene layout generation and visual fidelity. Moreover, LatticeWorld achieves over a 90times increase in industrial production efficiency while maintaining high creative quality compared with traditional manual production methods. Our demo video is available at https://youtu.be/8VWZXpERR18
Mycorrhiza: Genotype Assignment usingPhylogenetic Networks
Motivation The genotype assignment problem consists of predicting, from the genotype of an individual, which of a known set of populations it originated from. The problem arises in a variety of contexts, including wildlife forensics, invasive species detection and biodiversity monitoring. Existing approaches perform well under ideal conditions but are sensitive to a variety of common violations of the assumptions they rely on. Results In this article, we introduce Mycorrhiza, a machine learning approach for the genotype assignment problem. Our algorithm makes use of phylogenetic networks to engineer features that encode the evolutionary relationships among samples. Those features are then used as input to a Random Forests classifier. The classification accuracy was assessed on multiple published empirical SNP, microsatellite or consensus sequence datasets with wide ranges of size, geographical distribution and population structure and on simulated datasets. It compared favorably against widely used assessment tests or mixture analysis methods such as STRUCTURE and Admixture, and against another machine-learning based approach using principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. Mycorrhiza yields particularly significant gains on datasets with a large average fixation index (FST) or deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Moreover, the phylogenetic network approach estimates mixture proportions with good accuracy.
Bypassing Prompt Injection and Jailbreak Detection in LLM Guardrails
Large Language Models (LLMs) guardrail systems are designed to protect against prompt injection and jailbreak attacks. However, they remain vulnerable to evasion techniques. We demonstrate two approaches for bypassing LLM prompt injection and jailbreak detection systems via traditional character injection methods and algorithmic Adversarial Machine Learning (AML) evasion techniques. Through testing against six prominent protection systems, including Microsoft's Azure Prompt Shield and Meta's Prompt Guard, we show that both methods can be used to evade detection while maintaining adversarial utility achieving in some instances up to 100% evasion success. Furthermore, we demonstrate that adversaries can enhance Attack Success Rates (ASR) against black-box targets by leveraging word importance ranking computed by offline white-box models. Our findings reveal vulnerabilities within current LLM protection mechanisms and highlight the need for more robust guardrail systems.
Developing an Explainable Artificial Intelligent (XAI) Model for Predicting Pile Driving Vibrations in Bangkok's Subsoil
This study presents an explainable artificial intelligent (XAI) model for predicting pile driving vibrations in Bangkok's soft clay subsoil. A deep neural network was developed using a dataset of 1,018 real-world pile driving measurements, encompassing variations in pile dimensions, hammer characteristics, sensor locations, and vibration measurement axes. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.276, outperforming traditional empirical methods and other machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and CatBoost. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the model's predictions, revealing complex relationships between input features and peak particle velocity (PPV). Distance from the pile driving location emerged as the most influential factor, followed by hammer weight and pile size. Non-linear relationships and threshold effects were observed, providing new insights into vibration propagation in soft clay. A web-based application was developed to facilitate adoption by practicing engineers, bridging the gap between advanced machine learning techniques and practical engineering applications. This research contributes to the field of geotechnical engineering by offering a more accurate and nuanced approach to predicting pile driving vibrations, with implications for optimizing construction practices and mitigating environmental impacts in urban areas. The model and its source code are publicly available, promoting transparency and reproducibility in geotechnical research.
Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) for Diabetes Risk Prediction
The Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) is an innovative machine learning framework that harnesses quantum-inspired techniques to predict diabetes risk with exceptional accuracy and efficiency. Utilizing the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset augmented with 2,000 synthetic samples to mitigate class imbalance (total: 2,768 samples, 1,949 positives), QISICGM integrates a self-improving concept graph with a stacked ensemble comprising Random Forests (RF), Extra Trees (ET), transformers, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs). This approach achieves an out-of-fold (OOF) F1 score of 0.8933 and an AUC of 0.8699, outperforming traditional methods. Quantum inspired elements, such as phase feature mapping and neighborhood sequence modeling, enrich feature representations, enabling CPU-efficient inference at 8.5 rows per second. This paper presents a detailed architecture, theoretical foundations, code insights, and performance evaluations, including visualizations from the outputs subfolder. The open-source implementation (v1.0.0) is available at https://github.com/keninayoung/QISICGM, positioning QISICGM as a potential benchmark for AI-assisted clinical triage in diabetes and beyond. Ultimately, this work emphasizes trustworthy AI through calibration, interpretability, and open-source reproducibility.
Decoding Concerns: Multi-label Classification of Vaccine Sentiments in Social Media
In the realm of public health, vaccination stands as the cornerstone for mitigating disease risks and controlling their proliferation. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how vaccines play a crucial role in keeping us safe. However the situation involves a mix of perspectives, with skepticism towards vaccines prevailing for various reasons such as political dynamics, apprehensions about side effects, and more. The paper addresses the challenge of comprehensively understanding and categorizing these diverse concerns expressed in the context of vaccination. Our focus is on developing a robust multi-label classifier capable of assigning specific concern labels to tweets based on the articulated apprehensions towards vaccines. To achieve this, we delve into the application of a diverse set of advanced natural language processing techniques and machine learning algorithms including transformer models like BERT, state of the art GPT 3.5, Classifier Chains & traditional methods like SVM, Random Forest, Naive Bayes. We see that the cutting-edge large language model outperforms all other methods in this context.
Extracting Sentiment Attitudes From Analytical Texts
In this paper we present the RuSentRel corpus including analytical texts in the sphere of international relations. For each document we annotated sentiments from the author to mentioned named entities, and sentiments of relations between mentioned entities. In the current experiments, we considered the problem of extracting sentiment relations between entities for the whole documents as a three-class machine learning task. We experimented with conventional machine-learning methods (Naive Bayes, SVM, Random Forest).
Beyond Turing: A Comparative Analysis of Approaches for Detecting Machine-Generated Text
Significant progress has been made on text generation by pre-trained language models (PLMs), yet distinguishing between human and machine-generated text poses an escalating challenge. This paper offers an in-depth evaluation of three distinct methods used to address this task: traditional shallow learning, Language Model (LM) fine-tuning, and Multilingual Model fine-tuning. These approaches are rigorously tested on a wide range of machine-generated texts, providing a benchmark of their competence in distinguishing between human-authored and machine-authored linguistic constructs. The results reveal considerable differences in performance across methods, thus emphasizing the continued need for advancement in this crucial area of NLP. This study offers valuable insights and paves the way for future research aimed at creating robust and highly discriminative models.
Neural Machine Translation Models Can Learn to be Few-shot Learners
The emergent ability of Large Language Models to use a small number of examples to learn to perform in novel domains and tasks, also called in-context learning (ICL). In this work, we show that a much smaller model can be trained to perform ICL by fine-tuning towards a specialized training objective, exemplified on the task of domain adaptation for neural machine translation. With this capacity for ICL, the model can take advantage of relevant few-shot examples to adapt its output towards the domain. We compare the quality of this domain adaptation to traditional supervised techniques and ICL with a 40B-parameter Large Language Model. Our approach allows efficient batch inference on a mix of domains and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of both translation quality and immediate adaptation rate, i.e. the ability to reproduce a specific term after being shown a single example.
Generating Dispatching Rules for the Interrupting Swap-Allowed Blocking Job Shop Problem Using Graph Neural Network and Reinforcement Learning
The interrupting swap-allowed blocking job shop problem (ISBJSSP) is a complex scheduling problem that is able to model many manufacturing planning and logistics applications realistically by addressing both the lack of storage capacity and unforeseen production interruptions. Subjected to random disruptions due to machine malfunction or maintenance, industry production settings often choose to adopt dispatching rules to enable adaptive, real-time re-scheduling, rather than traditional methods that require costly re-computation on the new configuration every time the problem condition changes dynamically. To generate dispatching rules for the ISBJSSP problem, a method that uses graph neural networks and reinforcement learning is proposed. ISBJSSP is formulated as a Markov decision process. Using proximal policy optimization, an optimal scheduling policy is learnt from randomly generated instances. Employing a set of reported benchmark instances, we conduct a detailed experimental study on ISBJSSP instances with a range of machine shutdown probabilities to show that the scheduling policies generated can outperform or are at least as competitive as existing dispatching rules with predetermined priority. This study shows that the ISBJSSP, which requires real-time adaptive solutions, can be scheduled efficiently with the proposed machine learning method when production interruptions occur with random machine shutdowns.
KGAT: Knowledge Graph Attention Network for Recommendation
To provide more accurate, diverse, and explainable recommendation, it is compulsory to go beyond modeling user-item interactions and take side information into account. Traditional methods like factorization machine (FM) cast it as a supervised learning problem, which assumes each interaction as an independent instance with side information encoded. Due to the overlook of the relations among instances or items (e.g., the director of a movie is also an actor of another movie), these methods are insufficient to distill the collaborative signal from the collective behaviors of users. In this work, we investigate the utility of knowledge graph (KG), which breaks down the independent interaction assumption by linking items with their attributes. We argue that in such a hybrid structure of KG and user-item graph, high-order relations --- which connect two items with one or multiple linked attributes --- are an essential factor for successful recommendation. We propose a new method named Knowledge Graph Attention Network (KGAT) which explicitly models the high-order connectivities in KG in an end-to-end fashion. It recursively propagates the embeddings from a node's neighbors (which can be users, items, or attributes) to refine the node's embedding, and employs an attention mechanism to discriminate the importance of the neighbors. Our KGAT is conceptually advantageous to existing KG-based recommendation methods, which either exploit high-order relations by extracting paths or implicitly modeling them with regularization. Empirical results on three public benchmarks show that KGAT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods like Neural FM and RippleNet. Further studies verify the efficacy of embedding propagation for high-order relation modeling and the interpretability benefits brought by the attention mechanism.
Machine Learning to Detect Anxiety Disorders from Error-Related Negativity and EEG Signals
Anxiety is a common mental health condition characterised by excessive worry, fear and apprehension about everyday situations. Even with significant progress over the past few years, predicting anxiety from electroencephalographic (EEG) signals, specifically using error-related negativity (ERN), still remains challenging. Following the PRISMA protocol, this paper systematically reviews 54 research papers on using EEG and ERN markers for anxiety detection published in the last 10 years (2013 -- 2023). Our analysis highlights the wide usage of traditional machine learning, such as support vector machines and random forests, as well as deep learning models, such as convolutional neural networks and recurrent neural networks across different data types. Our analysis reveals that the development of a robust and generic anxiety prediction method still needs to address real-world challenges, such as task-specific setup, feature selection and computational modelling. We conclude this review by offering potential future direction for non-invasive, objective anxiety diagnostics, deployed across diverse populations and anxiety sub-types.
Improved Large Language Model Jailbreak Detection via Pretrained Embeddings
The adoption of large language models (LLMs) in many applications, from customer service chat bots and software development assistants to more capable agentic systems necessitates research into how to secure these systems. Attacks like prompt injection and jailbreaking attempt to elicit responses and actions from these models that are not compliant with the safety, privacy, or content policies of organizations using the model in their application. In order to counter abuse of LLMs for generating potentially harmful replies or taking undesirable actions, LLM owners must apply safeguards during training and integrate additional tools to block the LLM from generating text that abuses the model. Jailbreaking prompts play a vital role in convincing an LLM to generate potentially harmful content, making it important to identify jailbreaking attempts to block any further steps. In this work, we propose a novel approach to detect jailbreak prompts based on pairing text embeddings well-suited for retrieval with traditional machine learning classification algorithms. Our approach outperforms all publicly available methods from open source LLM security applications.
Dynamic Corrective Self-Distillation for Better Fine-Tuning of Pretrained Models
We tackle the challenging issue of aggressive fine-tuning encountered during the process of transfer learning of pre-trained language models (PLMs) with limited labeled downstream data. This problem primarily results in a decline in performance on the subsequent task. Inspired by the adaptive boosting method in traditional machine learning, we present an effective dynamic corrective self-distillation (DCS) approach to improve the fine-tuning of the PLMs. Our technique involves performing a self-distillation mechanism where, at each iteration, the student model actively adapts and corrects itself by dynamically adjusting the weights assigned to individual data points. This iterative self-correcting process significantly enhances the overall fine-tuning capability of PLMs, leading to improved performance and robustness. We conducted comprehensive evaluations using the GLUE benchmark demonstrating the efficacy of our method in enhancing the fine-tuning process for various PLMs across diverse downstream tasks.
MAG-V: A Multi-Agent Framework for Synthetic Data Generation and Verification
Extending the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) with functions or tools for environment interaction has led to the emergence of the agent paradigm. In industry, training an LLM is not always feasible because of the scarcity of domain data, legal holds on proprietary customer data, rapidly changing business requirements, and the need to prototype new assistants. Agents provide an elegant solution to the above by relying on the zero-shot reasoning abilities of the underlying LLM and utilizing tools to explore and reason over customer data and respond to user requests. However, there are two concerns here: (I) acquiring large scale customer queries for agent testing is time-consuming, and (II) high reliance on the tool call sequence (or trajectory) followed by the agent to respond to user queries may lead to unexpected or incorrect behavior. To address this, we propose MAG-V, a multi-agent framework to first generate a dataset of questions that mimic customer queries; and second, reverse-engineer alternate questions from the responses for trajectory verification. Initial results indicate that our synthetic data can improve agent performance on actual customer queries. Furthermore, our trajectory verification methodology, inspired by distant supervision and using traditional machine learning (ML) models, outperforms a GPT-4o judge baseline by 11% accuracy and matches the performance of a GPT-4 judge on our constructed dataset. Overall, our approach is a step towards unifying diverse task agents into a cohesive framework for achieving an aligned objective.
Efficient Massive Black Hole Binary parameter estimation for LISA using Sequential Neural Likelihood
The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.
DiabetesNet: A Deep Learning Approach to Diabetes Diagnosis
Diabetes, resulting from inadequate insulin production or utilization, causes extensive harm to the body. Existing diagnostic methods are often invasive and come with drawbacks, such as cost constraints. Although there are machine learning models like Classwise k Nearest Neighbor (CkNN) and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), they struggle with imbalanced data and result in under-performance. Leveraging advancements in sensor technology and machine learning, we propose a non-invasive diabetes diagnosis using a Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with batch normalization, incorporating data re-sampling and normalization for class balancing. Our method addresses existing challenges such as limited performance associated with traditional machine learning. Experimental results on three datasets show significant improvements in overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity compared to traditional methods. Notably, we achieve accuracies of 89.81% in Pima diabetes dataset, 75.49% in CDC BRFSS2015 dataset, and 95.28% in Mesra Diabetes dataset. This underscores the potential of deep learning models for robust diabetes diagnosis. See project website https://steve-zeyu-zhang.github.io/DiabetesDiagnosis/
Development of a New Image-to-text Conversion System for Pashto, Farsi and Traditional Chinese
We report upon the results of a research and prototype building project Worldly~OCR dedicated to developing new, more accurate image-to-text conversion software for several languages and writing systems. These include the cursive scripts Farsi and Pashto, and Latin cursive scripts. We also describe approaches geared towards Traditional Chinese, which is non-cursive, but features an extremely large character set of 65,000 characters. Our methodology is based on Machine Learning, especially Deep Learning, and Data Science, and is directed towards vast quantities of original documents, exceeding a billion pages. The target audience of this paper is a general audience with interest in Digital Humanities or in retrieval of accurate full-text and metadata from digital images.
SNAD catalogue of M-dwarf flares from the Zwicky Transient Facility
Most of the stars in the Universe are M spectral class dwarfs, which are known to be the source of bright and frequent stellar flares. In this paper, we propose new approaches to discover M-dwarf flares in ground-based photometric surveys. We employ two approaches: a modification of a traditional method of parametric fit search and a machine learning algorithm based on active anomaly detection. The algorithms are applied to Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data release 8, which includes the data from the ZTF high-cadence survey, allowing us to reveal flares lasting from minutes to hours. We analyze over 35 million ZTF light curves and visually scrutinize 1168 candidates suggested by the algorithms to filter out artifacts, occultations of a star by an asteroid, and other types of known variable objects. The result of this analysis is the largest catalogue of ZTF flaring stars to date, representing 134 flares with amplitudes ranging from -0.2 to -4.6 magnitudes, including repeated flares. Using Pan-STARRS DR2 colors, we assign a spectral subclass to each object in the sample. For 13 flares with well-sampled light curves and available geometric distances from Gaia DR3, we estimate the bolometric energy. This research shows that the proposed methods combined with the ZTF's cadence strategy are suitable for identifying M-dwarf flares and other fast transients, allowing for the extraction of significant astrophysical information from their light curves.
An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval
Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.
GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather
Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.
Large Language Models in the Workplace: A Case Study on Prompt Engineering for Job Type Classification
This case study investigates the task of job classification in a real-world setting, where the goal is to determine whether an English-language job posting is appropriate for a graduate or entry-level position. We explore multiple approaches to text classification, including supervised approaches such as traditional models like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and state-of-the-art deep learning methods such as DeBERTa. We compare them with Large Language Models (LLMs) used in both few-shot and zero-shot classification settings. To accomplish this task, we employ prompt engineering, a technique that involves designing prompts to guide the LLMs towards the desired output. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of two commercially available state-of-the-art GPT-3.5-based language models, text-davinci-003 and gpt-3.5-turbo. We also conduct a detailed analysis of the impact of different aspects of prompt engineering on the model's performance. Our results show that, with a well-designed prompt, a zero-shot gpt-3.5-turbo classifier outperforms all other models, achieving a 6% increase in Precision@95% Recall compared to the best supervised approach. Furthermore, we observe that the wording of the prompt is a critical factor in eliciting the appropriate "reasoning" in the model, and that seemingly minor aspects of the prompt significantly affect the model's performance.
Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems
Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.
Optimization Methods for Large-Scale Machine Learning
This paper provides a review and commentary on the past, present, and future of numerical optimization algorithms in the context of machine learning applications. Through case studies on text classification and the training of deep neural networks, we discuss how optimization problems arise in machine learning and what makes them challenging. A major theme of our study is that large-scale machine learning represents a distinctive setting in which the stochastic gradient (SG) method has traditionally played a central role while conventional gradient-based nonlinear optimization techniques typically falter. Based on this viewpoint, we present a comprehensive theory of a straightforward, yet versatile SG algorithm, discuss its practical behavior, and highlight opportunities for designing algorithms with improved performance. This leads to a discussion about the next generation of optimization methods for large-scale machine learning, including an investigation of two main streams of research on techniques that diminish noise in the stochastic directions and methods that make use of second-order derivative approximations.
AdsorbML: Accelerating Adsorption Energy Calculations with Machine Learning
Computational catalysis is playing an increasingly significant role in the design of catalysts across a wide range of applications. A common task for many computational methods is the need to accurately compute the minimum binding energy - the adsorption energy - for an adsorbate and a catalyst surface of interest. Traditionally, the identification of low energy adsorbate-surface configurations relies on heuristic methods and researcher intuition. As the desire to perform high-throughput screening increases, it becomes challenging to use heuristics and intuition alone. In this paper, we demonstrate machine learning potentials can be leveraged to identify low energy adsorbate-surface configurations more accurately and efficiently. Our algorithm provides a spectrum of trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency, with one balanced option finding the lowest energy configuration, within a 0.1 eV threshold, 86.33% of the time, while achieving a 1331x speedup in computation. To standardize benchmarking, we introduce the Open Catalyst Dense dataset containing nearly 1,000 diverse surfaces and 85,658 unique configurations.
